Spread During News — Measured Minute by Minute — FxPro Thailand
What the latest major release actually cost on FxPro’s Raw+ feed, tick by tick: EUR/USD all-in about $99 per lot at the peak vs $9 quiet — ×11 for a few seconds. The bigger hazard was the 1.9 s quote gap: news slippage lives in that silence, not in the spread. Window: CPI, Core CPI n.s.a. m/m, CPI y/y, Core CPI m/m — 14 Jul 2026, 19:30 ICT.
Open FxPro Account →CPI, Core CPI n.s.a. m/m, CPI y/y, Core CPI m/m — 14 Jul 2026, 19:30 ICT
| Instrument | Quiet spread (pips) | Peak at release | All-in at peak | Peak vs daily range | Peak hits after | Longest quote gap | Back to normal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 0.2 | 9.2 (×46.0) | $99/lot | 23% | 5 s | 1.7 s | 129 s |
| GBP/USD | 0.6 | 7.1 (×11.8) | $78/lot | 14% | 1 s | 1.9 s | 1 s |
| AUD/USD | 0.4 | 4.2 (×10.5) | $49/lot | 10% | 1 s | 1.3 s | 8 s |
| USD/CAD | 0.4 | 6 (×15.0) | $50/lot | 11% | 2 s | 1.2 s | 3 s |
| USD/JPY | 0.3 | 16.9 (×56.3) | $113/lot | 20% | 1 s | 1.4 s | 129 s |
| XAU/USD (Gold) | 15 | 150 (×10.0) | $157/lot | 2% * | 65 s | 0.8 s | 65 s * |
Definitions: quiet spread = median of the 15 minutes before the release; peak = widest single quote after it. All-in = peak spread × pip value + $7 round-turn Raw+ commission ($3.50/side, 1 lot) — quiet EUR/USD all-in is $9 ($2 spread + $7 commission). Peak vs daily range = peak spread as a share of the instrument’s average daily range. Back to normal = first quote under 1.5× the quiet median. * Gold always runs wide relative to FX, so its share of daily range is small and it “recovers” almost instantly by this measure. Times in ICT.
What printed
| Release | Actual | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| CPI | 332.568 | 332.371 |
| Core CPI n.s.a. m/m | 0 | — |
| CPI y/y | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Core CPI m/m | 0 | 0.2 |
| CPI m/m | -0.4 | 0.5 |
Values as published by the platform calendar feed (its own scale — e.g. payrolls in thousands).
Execution reality: the gap, not the spread
In this window the feed went quiet for up to 1.9 s on one instrument — roughly 22× the measured order round-trip. A market order sent into that silence fills at the next real quote, wherever it prints: that gap — not the spread — is where news slippage lives.
| Instrument (1.00 lot) | Order round-trip | Avg slippage | Worse-side fills |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 89 ms | +0.0 pt | 0/3 fills worse |
| GBP/USD | 88 ms | +1.0 pt | 2/3 fills worse |
| XAU/USD (Gold) | 83 ms | +9.7 pt | 2/3 fills worse |
Order latency and slippage measured with real orders in a CALM market — a news-time fill inherits the quote gaps above on top of this baseline.
All six instruments, minute by minute
Each cell is the average spread of that minute as a multiple of the quiet median — the instant peaks in the table above are single quotes inside minute 0, so a ×4 minute average and a ×18 instant peak describe the same event.
| Minute vs release | -3 | -2 | -1 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ×1.0 | ×2.5 | ×3.1 | ×5.1 | ×3.1 | ×1.4 | ×1.0 |
| GBP/USD | ×1.0 | ×1.4 | ×1.9 | ×2.3 | ×1.8 | ×1.1 | ×1.0 |
| AUD/USD | ×0.9 | ×1.3 | ×2.5 | ×2.4 | ×2.1 | ×1.0 | ×0.8 |
| USD/CAD | ×0.7 | ×1.5 | ×2.7 | ×2.9 | ×2.6 | ×1.0 | ×0.8 |
| USD/JPY | ×1.0 | ×2.0 | ×3.1 | ×6.4 | ×3.8 | ×1.5 | ×1.0 |
| XAU/USD (Gold) | ×1.0 | ×2.0 | ×2.4 | ×4.7 | ×2.6 | ×1.3 | ×1.0 |
Tick density across instruments ran ×1.4–×2.2 the usual rate in the release minute; everything is flat again by about +2 minutes.
Honest context: news vs the daily rollover
| Instrument | This release peak (pips) | Worst daily hour (rollover) | Which is worse? |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 9.2 | 7.4 | the release is worse |
| GBP/USD | 7.1 | 15 | rollover is worse |
| AUD/USD | 4.2 | 25 | rollover is worse |
| USD/CAD | 6 | 25 | rollover is worse |
| USD/JPY | 16.9 | 16 | the release is worse |
| XAU/USD (Gold) | 150 | 175 | rollover is worse |
On several majors the everyday rollover hour is wider than a top-tier release — one more reason the quote gap, not the spread, is the real news risk.
Stops that survive the spike
FxPro’s measured stops level is 0 points on all six instruments — stops and straddle orders can sit at any distance. The practical floor during a release is the spread itself: at this print an EUR/USD stop closer than about 13.8 pips could have been filled by the spread alone, with price effectively unmoved, and a gold stop inside 225 points ($2.25) was equally exposed. The 1.5× buffer over the measured peak covers the post-peak chop before quotes settle.
Every release we have measured (58 windows since Jul 2026)
| When (ICT) | Ccy | Release | Actual vs forecast | Biggest widening | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug, 21:30 | USD | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 0.095 vs 5.39 f'cast | AUD/USD ×2.0 | 1 s |
| 26 Aug, 19:30 | USD | GDP Sales q/q, GDP q/q, Core PCE Price Index y/y | GDP Sales q/q: 2.2 vs 2.2 f'cast; GDP q/q: 1.5 vs 1.5 f'cast | USD/JPY ×10.7 | 63 s |
| 20 Aug, 19:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | Initial Jobless Claims: 206 vs 206 f'cast; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: 47.4 vs 13.7 f'cast | AUD/USD ×2.0 | 1 s |
| 19 Aug, 21:30 | USD | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 4.405 vs 6.913 f'cast | USD/JPY ×3.0 | 78 s |
| 14 Aug, 19:30 | USD | Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m | Core Retail Sales m/m: -0.3 vs 0.1 f'cast; Retail Sales m/m: -0.6 vs 0 f'cast | USD/JPY ×8.7 | 42 s |
| 14 Aug, 00:00 | USD | 30-Year Bond Auction | 30-Year Bond Auction: 5.216 | AUD/USD ×2.0 | 1 s |
| 13 Aug, 19:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims, PPI m/m | Initial Jobless Claims: 209 vs 213 f'cast; PPI m/m: 0 vs 0.5 f'cast | USD/JPY ×11.0 | 58 s |
| 6 scheduled speeches / quiet events (CB Consumer Confidence Index, CPI y/y, ECB President Lagarde Speech, GDP q/q) | no measurable reaction (<×1.5) | — | |||
This history grows automatically: every high-impact release is captured once and kept.
How this was measured
- Release times come from the platform’s economic calendar (high-impact only).
- For every release, all ticks 15 minutes either side are pulled from FxPro’s own MT5 feed and reduced to a per-minute spread curve.
- Recovery = first quote after the peak back under 1.5× the quiet median.
- Figures refresh on a schedule and vary release to release.
Related FxPro pages
Funding method rarely changes a quoted spread, but it does change when the money is available to act on one, and that timing gap matters around scheduled releases. For the local side, check what the Bank of Thailand says about transfers, and for the mechanics, read how bid and ask prices differ.